10/01/2024
·
15:45
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
1-2
Al Qous vs Arar Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
52%
Over
48%
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
53%
No
47%
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2-3
46%
4-5
21%
6+
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
15%
X/X
18%
2/1
3%
2/2
26%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 53% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
25%
Home Win
40%
31%
Draw
26%
44%
Away Win
34%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Al Qous v Arar — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Al Qous
The Market 44%
Head to Head
AWAY
Arar
The Market 37%
-6% /
-6%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
-41%
/
-20%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
49%
Ball Possession
51%
11
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
5
299 · 74%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
336 · 75%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Al Qous vs Arar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Arar squeezed past Al Qous 1-0 away from home.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Arar as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
What was the final score of Al Qous vs Arar?
Al Qous 0-1 Arar in the Saudi Arabia - 2nd Division on 10/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Al Qous vs Arar?
Before kick-off our model rated an Arar win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Al Qous 25%, draw 31%, Arar 44%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arar), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Arar)
✓ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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SUUD2
More Saudi Arabia - 2nd Division
10 Jan 2024