Villarreal vs Deportivo Alaves Prediction — Model Probabilities
Villarreal v Deportivo Alaves — Team-Based Signals
Villarreal vs Deportivo Alaves Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Villarreal 3-1 Deportivo Alaves — Actual Match Statistics
Villarreal had too much for Deportivo Alaves 3-1. It stood 0-0 at the interval — everything that mattered happened after the restart.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Villarreal as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
The goals picture was genuinely open: 50% for over 2.5, 47% on both teams scoring. The market went further still — the BTTS-no price closed at 1.67, about 60%.
By the numbers, Deportivo Alaves saw more of the ball, 56% to 44%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.53 to 0.94.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.83 a game for Villarreal against 1.17 for Deportivo Alaves.
Villarreal vs Deportivo Alaves Result & Final Score
Villarreal 3-1 Deportivo Alaves in the Spain - Primera Liga on 10/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Villarreal vs Deportivo Alaves Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Villarreal win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Villarreal 64%, draw 21%, Deportivo Alaves 15%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Villarreal) — while BTTS No went the other way.