Fulham 3-1 Middlesbrough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 10 Jan 2026

📅10/01/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.9
Over 2.5
54%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.73
No
42%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.31
2-3 Goals
36%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
27%
3.33
6+ Goals
12%
12.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.33 — our 27% vs market 23.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.59
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
17%
4.67
X/2
7%
8.09
X/X
13%
4.87
2/1 EV+ ✓
7%
24.45
2/2
14%
6.08
2/X
6%
14.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 7% vs market 2.1%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
48%
-0.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.6pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+1.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
49%
-3.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
51%
+3.2pp
58%
BTTS Yes
54%
+4.2pp
42%
BTTS No
46%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fulham EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.37/2.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.08/1.18
-36% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
304 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 207 · 70%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.0
19.2 Crosses 9.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fulham
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Middlesbrough
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.41 xG 1.10
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 5
393 Passes 252
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
25 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2022 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0-1 HT 0-0 Fulham Fulham İNCL
08.08.2021 Fulham Fulham 1-1 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
17.01.2020 Fulham Fulham 1-0 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
26.10.2019 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0-0 HT 0-0 Fulham Fulham İNCL
13.01.2018 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0-1 HT 0-0 Fulham Fulham İNCL
23.09.2017 Fulham Fulham 1-1 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fulham
3-1
AWAY Middlesbrough
2.18 xG 0.74
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
558 Passes 429
89% Pass Accuracy 86%
33 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fulham vs Middlesbrough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fulham beat Middlesbrough 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fulham as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Fulham had 56% of the ball to Middlesbrough's 44%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 2.18 to 0.74.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fulham had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Fulham and 0.33 for Middlesbrough.

What was the final score of Fulham vs Middlesbrough?

Fulham 3-1 Middlesbrough in the England - FA Cup on 10/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fulham vs Middlesbrough?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fulham win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Fulham 48%, draw 25%, Middlesbrough 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fulham), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fulham) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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