Newcastle 3-3 Bournemouth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 10 Jan 2026

📅10/01/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.57
Draw
19%
4.08
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.63
Over 2.5
51%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.49
No
52%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
6.01
2-3 Goals
41%
2.09
4-5 Goals
22%
2.52
6+ Goals
12%
5.42
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 6.01 — our 25% vs market 12.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.98
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
4%
14.25
X/1
12%
4.56
X/2
9%
10.8
X/X
9%
7.15
2/1
5%
18.65
2/2
10%
7.29
2/X
6%
15.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
59%
-1.6pp
19%
Draw
21%
-1.5pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
34%
+14.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
66%
-14.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
63%
-15.5pp
52%
BTTS No
37%
+15.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Bournemouth EU Bookmakers 24%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.41/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.15
-35% / +116% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +65%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
404 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.7 Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle
3-3
AWAY Bournemouth
3.91 xG 3.02
63% Ball Possession 37%
23 Total Shots 22
7 Shots on Target 13
7 Corners 5
588 Passes 301
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
69 Box Touches 31
36 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Newcastle vs Bournemouth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle and Bournemouth shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 0-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Newcastle at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Newcastle had 63% of the ball to Bournemouth's 37%, shots finished 23-22, expected goals 3.91 to 3.02.

What was the final score of Newcastle vs Bournemouth?

Newcastle 3-3 Bournemouth in the England - FA Cup on 10/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Newcastle 57%, draw 19%, Bournemouth 24%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Newcastle), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Newcastle) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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