Middlesbrough 1-2 Bristol City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 10 Feb 2024

📅10/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.76
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.05
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.75
6+ Goals
11%
16.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 31% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.33
1/2
9%
34.0
1/X
9%
14.8
X/1
19%
3.92
X/2
8%
8.45
X/X
12%
4.75
2/1
10%
24.15
2/2
8%
6.75
2/X
9%
15.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-8.0pp
30%
Draw
25%
+5.2pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+2.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.4pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Bristol City EU Bookmakers 26%
-4% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +2%
1.60/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.48
-6% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
294 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 73%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
21.3 Crosses 17.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Middlesbrough
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Bristol City
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.55 xG 1.58
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 2
402 Passes 258
79% Pass Accuracy 71%
30 Box Touches 16
27 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2023 Bristol City Bristol City 3-2 HT 2-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
10.04.2023 Bristol City Bristol City 2-2 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
05.11.2022 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-1 HT 0-1 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
19.02.2022 Bristol City Bristol City 2-1 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
14.08.2021 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-1 HT 1-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
23.02.2021 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-3 HT 0-3 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middlesbrough
1-2
AWAY Bristol City
1.84 xG 1.41
70% Ball Possession 30%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 1
661 Passes 243
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
41 Box Touches 9
27 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Middlesbrough vs Bristol City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bristol City squeezed past Middlesbrough 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Middlesbrough at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Middlesbrough had 70% of the ball to Bristol City's 30%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.84 to 1.41 — the balance of chances actually favoured Middlesbrough.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bristol City led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Middlesbrough and 2.00 for Bristol City.

What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Bristol City?

Middlesbrough 1-2 Bristol City in the England - Championship on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middlesbrough vs Bristol City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Middlesbrough 45%, draw 30%, Bristol City 25%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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