Watford 1-2 Leicester City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 10 Feb 2024

Watford
1-2 HT 0-1
Leicester City
📅10/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2023/2024

Watford vs Leicester City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.08
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
46%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.1
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.01
6+ Goals
11%
9.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.88
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
22.45
1/X
7%
13.3
X/1
12%
7.17
X/2
16%
4.62
X/X
9%
5.25
2/1
6%
32.5
2/2
23%
2.64
2/X
8%
13.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.45 — our 7% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
29%
+0.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.1pp
46%
Away Win
46%
-0.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.9pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Watford v Leicester City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Watford EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Leicester City EU Bookmakers 50%
+8% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +15%
1.40/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.19
+34% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +54% / +3%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
263 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 78%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
20.6 Crosses 9.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6

Watford vs Leicester City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Watford
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Leicester City
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.31 xG 2.31
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
242 Passes 434
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Leicester City Leicester City 2-0 HT 0-0 Watford Watford İNCL
15.05.2022 Watford Watford 1-5 HT 1-2 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
08.01.2022 Leicester City Leicester City 4-1 HT 2-1 Watford Watford FAK
28.11.2021 Leicester City Leicester City 4-2 HT 3-1 Watford Watford İNP
20.06.2020 Watford Watford 1-1 HT 0-0 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
04.12.2019 Leicester City Leicester City 2-0 HT 0-0 Watford Watford İNP

Watford 1-2 Leicester City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Watford
1-2
AWAY Leicester City
1.09 xG 1.47
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 1
384 Passes 441
86% Pass Accuracy 87%
20 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Watford vs Leicester City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leicester City squeezed past Watford 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Leicester City as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Watford had 48% of the ball to Leicester City's 52%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 1.09 to 1.47.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leicester City led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Watford and 3.00 for Leicester City.

What was the final score of Watford vs Leicester City?

Watford 1-2 Leicester City in the England - Championship on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Watford vs Leicester City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leicester City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Watford 29%, draw 25%, Leicester City 46%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leicester City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Leicester City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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