Atlanta United 4-1 New England Revolution — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 10 Mar 2024

Atlanta United
4-1 HT 1-0
New England Revolution
📅10/03/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Atlanta United vs New England Revolution Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.66
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.5
No
47%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.39
2-3 Goals
40%
2.0
4-5 Goals
24%
2.68
6+ Goals
13%
6.58
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.12
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
14.0
X/1
14%
4.31
X/2
8%
9.65
X/X
9%
6.29
2/1
8%
19.95
2/2
11%
6.37
2/X
8%
14.3
Value flag · 1/X at 14.0 — our 10% vs market 4.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
56%
-7.5pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.7pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+3.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
62%
-9.1pp
47%
BTTS No
38%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atlanta United v New England Revolution — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY New England Revolution EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -18%
1.97/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/2.03
+26% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -11%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
408 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 77%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
17.8 Crosses 16.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0

Atlanta United vs New England Revolution Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlanta United
0W-2D-4L
AWAY New England Revolution
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.47 xG 1.66
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
472 Passes 286
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.07.2023 New England Revolution New England Revolution 2-1 HT 2-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
01.06.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 3-3 HT 0-2 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
01.10.2022 New England Revolution New England Revolution 2-1 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
15.05.2022 Atlanta United Atlanta United 2-2 HT 1-1 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
18.07.2021 Atlanta United Atlanta United 0-1 HT 0-1 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
02.05.2021 New England Revolution New England Revolution 2-1 HT 1-1 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD

Atlanta United 4-1 New England Revolution — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlanta United
4-1
AWAY New England Revolution
3.25 xG 0.70
44% Ball Possession 56%
21 Total Shots 14
9 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
325 Passes 432
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
40 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atlanta United vs New England Revolution
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlanta United ran out comfortable winners over New England Revolution 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atlanta United as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Atlanta United had 44% of the ball to New England Revolution's 56%, shots finished 21-14, expected goals 3.25 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New England Revolution led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atlanta United and 2.00 for New England Revolution.

What was the final score of Atlanta United vs New England Revolution?

Atlanta United 4-1 New England Revolution in the USA - Major League on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlanta United vs New England Revolution?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlanta United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Atlanta United 48%, draw 27%, New England Revolution 24%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atlanta United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atlanta United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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