New York Red Bulls 2-1 FC Dallas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.57
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
25%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.23
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.64
6+ Goals
9%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.23 — our 29% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.01
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.45
X/1
17%
3.65
X/2
10%
11.05
X/X
12%
5.08
2/1
9%
24.85
2/2
10%
9.26
2/X
8%
17.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
60%
-13.3pp
29%
Draw
24%
+5.0pp
25%
Away Win
17%
+8.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.1pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York Red Bulls EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Dallas EU Bookmakers 20%
-8% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -6%
1.56/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.61
-14% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +17%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
373 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 75%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
19.6 Crosses 12.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York Red Bulls
3W-3D-0L
AWAY FC Dallas
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.24 xG 1.28
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
334 Passes 308
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
17.04.2022 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
11.05.2019 FC Dallas FC Dallas 1-3 HT 1-1 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
24.06.2018 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 3-0 HT 2-0 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
03.09.2017 FC Dallas FC Dallas 2-2 HT 0-1 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
30.04.2016 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 4-0 HT 1-0 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
16.05.2015 FC Dallas FC Dallas 0-0 HT 0-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York Red Bulls
2-1
AWAY FC Dallas
2.03 xG 0.67
41% Ball Possession 59%
18 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 1
336 Passes 514
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 10
7 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH New York Red Bulls vs FC Dallas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York Red Bulls edged past FC Dallas 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had New York Red Bulls as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, New York Red Bulls had 41% of the ball to FC Dallas's 59%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 2.03 to 0.67 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold New York Red Bulls's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York Red Bulls had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for New York Red Bulls and 0.50 for FC Dallas.

What was the final score of New York Red Bulls vs FC Dallas?

New York Red Bulls 2-1 FC Dallas in the USA - Major League on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York Red Bulls vs FC Dallas?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York Red Bulls win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split New York Red Bulls 46%, draw 29%, FC Dallas 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New York Red Bulls) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (New York Red Bulls) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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