ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-3 JEF United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 10 Mar 2024

ThespaKusatsu Gunma
1-3 HT 0-2
JEF United
📅10/03/2024 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Japan - J2 League – 2024

ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs JEF United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
5.09
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
44%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.68
Over 2.5
38%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.79
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.19
6+ Goals
7%
20.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.79 — our 35% vs market 29.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
26%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
17%
+10.1pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.8pp
44%
Away Win
58%
-13.8pp
62%
Under 2.5
56%
+6.8pp
38%
Over 2.5
44%
-6.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.2pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

ThespaKusatsu Gunma v JEF United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY JEF United EU Bookmakers 62%
+0% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
0.79/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.95/0.95
-22% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -21%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
235 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 422 · 83%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.0

ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs JEF United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma
1W-1D-4L
AWAY JEF United
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
472 Passes 258
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
05.11.2023 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-2 HT 0-0 JEF United JEF United JAP2
05.03.2023 JEF United JEF United 2-2 HT 1-2 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
07.08.2022 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 0-3 HT 0-2 JEF United JEF United JAP2
20.03.2022 JEF United JEF United 0-1 HT 0-1 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
25.09.2021 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 0-1 HT 0-0 JEF United JEF United JAP2
03.07.2021 JEF United JEF United 2-0 HT 1-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2

ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-3 JEF United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma
1-3
AWAY JEF United
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 9
1 Corners 9
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs JEF United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

JEF United saw off ThespaKusatsu Gunma 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had JEF United as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, ThespaKusatsu Gunma had 40% of the ball to JEF United's 60%, shots finished 8-21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, JEF United led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for ThespaKusatsu Gunma and 1.67 for JEF United.

What was the final score of ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs JEF United?

ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-3 JEF United in the Japan - J2 League on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs JEF United?

Before kick-off our model rated an JEF United win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split ThespaKusatsu Gunma 27%, draw 29%, JEF United 44%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (JEF United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (JEF United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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