V-Varen Nagasaki 4-1 Shimizu S-Pulse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.17
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
43%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.74
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.25
6+ Goals
11%
11.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
28%
+2.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
43%
Away Win
46%
-3.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.9pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 50%
-2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -24% / -24%
1.32/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.21
+19% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -13%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
352 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.98 xG 2.98
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
276 Passes 353
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.07.2023 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 3-2 HT 2-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
04.03.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1 HT 1-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP2
01.12.2018 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 4-4 HT 2-1 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
11.04.2018 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 0-1 HT 0-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
4-1
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-Pulse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki cruised past Shimizu S-Pulse 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Shimizu S-Pulse at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 44% of the ball to Shimizu S-Pulse's 56%, shots finished 12-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 2.00 for Shimizu S-Pulse.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-Pulse?

V-Varen Nagasaki 4-1 Shimizu S-Pulse in the Japan - J2 League on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-Pulse?

Before kick-off our model rated an Shimizu S-Pulse win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 30%, draw 27%, Shimizu S-Pulse 43%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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