Sacramento Republic 2-2 Orange County SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 10 Mar 2024

Sacramento Republic
2-2 HT 1-1
Orange County SC
📅10/03/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
USL Championship – 2024

Sacramento Republic vs Orange County SC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
51%
1.78
Over
49%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
29%
3.03
2-3
40%
1.78
4-5
20%
3.85
6+
11%
17.0
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.03 — our 29% vs market 27.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 51% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-5.3pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.5pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.4pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sacramento Republic v Orange County SC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 25%
-3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +3%
1.42/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.15
-20% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
342 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 75%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
20.7 Crosses 12.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6

Sacramento Republic vs Orange County SC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sacramento Republic
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Orange County SC
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.24 xG 0.79
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
391 Passes 351
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.08.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 0-2 HT 0-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
18.05.2023 Orange County SC Orange County SC 1-0 HT 1-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
19.09.2022 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 4-0 HT 4-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
17.04.2022 Orange County SC Orange County SC 1-1 HT 1-1 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
25.07.2021 Orange County SC Orange County SC 2-2 HT 1-1 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
11.07.2021 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 0-2 HT 0-2 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP

Sacramento Republic 2-2 Orange County SC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sacramento Republic
2-2
AWAY Orange County SC
1.03 xG 0.75
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
469 Passes 381
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sacramento Republic vs Orange County SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sacramento Republic and Orange County SC shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Sacramento Republic at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Sacramento Republic had 54% of the ball to Orange County SC's 46%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 1.03 to 0.75.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orange County SC led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sacramento Republic and 1.33 for Orange County SC.

What was the final score of Sacramento Republic vs Orange County SC?

Sacramento Republic 2-2 Orange County SC in the USL Championship on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sacramento Republic vs Orange County SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 48%, draw 26%, Orange County SC 26%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sacramento Republic), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sacramento Republic) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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