Alianza Lima vs Melgar Prediction — Model Probabilities
Alianza Lima v Melgar — Team-Based Signals
Alianza Lima vs Melgar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Alianza Lima 3-1 Melgar — Actual Match Statistics
Alianza Lima beat Melgar 3-1. It stood 1-1 at the interval — everything that mattered happened after the restart.
True to our pre-match read, our model had Alianza Lima as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 52%, coin-flips both. At 1.64 (~61%), the BTTS-no price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.
The match data tells the story: Alianza Lima had 50% of the ball to Melgar's 50%, shots finished 22-12, expected goals 3.77 to 1.46.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melgar led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Alianza Lima and 1.00 for Melgar.
Alianza Lima vs Melgar Result & Final Score
Alianza Lima 3-1 Melgar in the Peru - Premier League on 10/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Alianza Lima vs Melgar Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Lima win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Alianza Lima 57%, draw 27%, Melgar 16%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alianza Lima), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.