Stade Lavallois 1-2 Troyes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 10 May 2024

📅10/05/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
33%
3.35
Away
25%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.86
Over 2.5
39%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.28
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.59
6+ Goals
8%
14.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 32% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.62
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.7
X/1
15%
4.12
X/2
10%
7.47
X/X
19%
4.54
2/1
11%
26.0
2/2
8%
5.98
2/X
6%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-3.0pp
33%
Draw
26%
+6.5pp
25%
Away Win
29%
-3.5pp
61%
Under 2.5
50%
+11.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
50%
-11.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.0pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stade Lavallois EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Troyes EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -8%
1.24/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.27
-17% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +34%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
299 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 77%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
22.5 Crosses 16.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stade Lavallois
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Troyes
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.46 xG 1.81
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
357 Passes 360
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.08.2023 Troyes Troyes 3-1 HT 2-0 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois FR2
20.01.2017 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois 1-0 HT 0-0 Troyes Troyes FR2
12.08.2016 Troyes Troyes 1-0 HT 1-0 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois FR2
09.08.2016 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois 1-0 HT 0-0 Troyes Troyes FRLK
30.01.2015 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois 2-1 HT 1-0 Troyes Troyes FR2
22.08.2014 Troyes Troyes 0-0 HT 0-0 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stade Lavallois
1-2
AWAY Troyes
2.40 xG 0.80
50% Ball Possession 50%
23 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 2
299 Passes 326
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
56 Box Touches 9
30 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Stade Lavallois vs Troyes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Troyes edged past Stade Lavallois 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Stade Lavallois at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Stade Lavallois had 50% of the ball to Troyes's 50%, shots finished 23-8, expected goals 2.40 to 0.80 — the balance of chances actually favoured Stade Lavallois.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stade Lavallois had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Stade Lavallois and 0.83 for Troyes.

What was the final score of Stade Lavallois vs Troyes?

Stade Lavallois 1-2 Troyes in the France - Ligue 2 on 10/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stade Lavallois vs Troyes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stade Lavallois win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Stade Lavallois 42%, draw 33%, Troyes 25%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Stade Lavallois) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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