Mirandes 3-2 CD Castellon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 10 May 2025

📅10/05/2025 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.95
Over 2.5
55%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.53
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
26%
3.28
6+ Goals
12%
11.7
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.28 — our 26% vs market 24.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.65
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1
14%
4.73
X/2
10%
7.78
X/X
13%
5.06
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
23.75
2/2
10%
5.71
2/X
6%
14.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.75 — our 12% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-1.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-2.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+2.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.6pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mirandes EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 29%
+10% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
1.76/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.80
+48% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -20%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
334 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 73%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
18.7 Crosses 16.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mirandes
2W-1D-0L
AWAY CD Castellon
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.86 xG 0.95
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
305 Passes 334
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
16.11.2024 CD Castellon CD Castellon 1-3 HT 0-3 Mirandes Mirandes İS2
07.02.2021 CD Castellon CD Castellon 0-1 HT 0-0 Mirandes Mirandes İS2
28.11.2020 Mirandes Mirandes 1-1 HT 1-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mirandes
3-2
AWAY CD Castellon
2.94 xG 1.82
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 3
265 Passes 350
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
30 Box Touches 32
17 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mirandes vs CD Castellon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mirandes squeezed past CD Castellon 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Mirandes as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Mirandes had 44% of the ball to CD Castellon's 56%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 2.94 to 1.82.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Mirandes had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Mirandes and 0.67 for CD Castellon.

What was the final score of Mirandes vs CD Castellon?

Mirandes 3-2 CD Castellon in the Spain - 2nd Division on 10/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mirandes vs CD Castellon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mirandes win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Mirandes 47%, draw 25%, CD Castellon 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mirandes), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mirandes) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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