Oulu 2-3 Gnistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 10 May 2025

Oulu
2-3 HT 0-0
Gnistan
📅10/05/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
39%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.49
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
21%
3.56
6+ Goals
9%
13.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 30% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.52
1/2
6%
26.5
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1
15%
6.58
X/2
11%
5.35
X/X
10%
4.66
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
22%
3.27
2/X
11%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+1.8pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.5pp
39%
Away Win
40%
-1.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.4pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oulu EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Gnistan EU Bookmakers 45%
-16% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -41% / -41%
1.04/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.73
-26% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -57%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
282 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 76%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.1
14.7 Crosses 28.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oulu
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Gnistan
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.87 xG 1.07
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
322 Passes 272
73% Pass Accuracy 69%
22 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.09.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 1-0 HT 0-0 Oulu Oulu FİN
18.08.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 2-0 HT 2-0 Oulu Oulu FİN
11.05.2024 Oulu Oulu 1-1 HT 1-1 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
17.10.2020 Gnistan Gnistan 1-2 HT 0-1 Oulu Oulu FİN2
27.06.2020 Oulu Oulu 2-0 HT 1-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN2
19.08.2017 Oulu Oulu 1-2 HT 0-2 Gnistan Gnistan FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oulu
2-3
AWAY Gnistan
1.99 xG 1.44
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
256 Passes 171
66% Pass Accuracy 59%
17 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Oulu vs Gnistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gnistan nicked a narrow win over Oulu 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 39% — and on the day Gnistan made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Oulu had 57% of the ball to Gnistan's 43%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.99 to 1.44 — the balance of chances actually favoured Oulu.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gnistan led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Oulu and 1.17 for Gnistan.

What was the final score of Oulu vs Gnistan?

Oulu 2-3 Gnistan in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 10/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oulu vs Gnistan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gnistan win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Oulu 34%, draw 27%, Gnistan 39%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gnistan), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gnistan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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