Cerezo Osaka 1-2 Ventforet Kofu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - İmparatorluk Cup, 10 Jul 2024

📅10/07/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.23
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.64
6+ Goals
9%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.23 — our 28% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
53%
-1.6pp
21%
Draw
23%
-1.7pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.5pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Ventforet Kofu EU Bookmakers 28%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +46% / +46%
2.29/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.92/0.77
+22% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +69% / +95%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
295 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Ventforet Kofu
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
448 Passes 313
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
22.08.2018 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-0 HT 0-0 Ventforet Kofu Ventforet Kofu JPK
21.10.2017 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-0 HT 1-0 Ventforet Kofu Ventforet Kofu JAP
22.04.2017 Ventforet Kofu Ventforet Kofu 1-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
12.04.2017 Ventforet Kofu Ventforet Kofu 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JLK
02.11.2014 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-3 HT 1-0 Ventforet Kofu Ventforet Kofu JAP
23.07.2014 Ventforet Kofu Ventforet Kofu 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1-2
AWAY Ventforet Kofu
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Ventforet Kofu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ventforet Kofu nicked a narrow win over Cerezo Osaka 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Cerezo Osaka at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 61% of the ball to Ventforet Kofu's 39%, shots finished 11-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 0.67 for Ventforet Kofu.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Ventforet Kofu?

Cerezo Osaka 1-2 Ventforet Kofu in the Japan - İmparatorluk Cup on 10/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Ventforet Kofu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 51%, draw 21%, Ventforet Kofu 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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