Leeds United 3-3 Portsmouth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 10 Aug 2024

Leeds United
3-3 HT 1-2
Portsmouth
📅10/08/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Leeds United vs Portsmouth Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.3
Draw
20%
4.95
Away
17%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.38
Over 2.5
57%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.97
2-3 Goals
36%
1.95
4-5 Goals
28%
2.77
6+ Goals
14%
7.31
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.47
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
23.6
X/1
22%
3.44
X/2
5%
20.6
X/X
7%
8.22
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.3
2/2
6%
15.85
2/X
7%
23.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
72%
-9.9pp
20%
Draw
17%
+3.4pp
17%
Away Win
11%
+6.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
38%
+4.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
62%
-4.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.8pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leeds United v Portsmouth — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leeds United EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Portsmouth EU Bookmakers 14%
-5% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.79/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.75
-15% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +8%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
405 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 76%
36.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
21.1 Crosses –
1.5 Yellow Cards –

Leeds United vs Portsmouth Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leeds United
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Portsmouth
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
12 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
The Meetings
25.02.2012 Portsmouth Portsmouth 0-0 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
01.10.2011 Leeds United Leeds United 1-0 HT 1-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNCL
22.01.2011 Portsmouth Portsmouth 2-2 HT 1-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
28.12.2010 Leeds United Leeds United 3-3 HT 2-1 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNCL
28.08.2007 Portsmouth Portsmouth 3-0 HT 1-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNLK
26.10.2004 Portsmouth Portsmouth 2-1 HT 2-1 Leeds United Leeds United İNLK

Leeds United 3-3 Portsmouth — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leeds United
3-3
AWAY Portsmouth
3.39 xG 0.94
69% Ball Possession 31%
22 Total Shots 5
10 Shots on Target 4
12 Corners 0
419 Passes 146
83% Pass Accuracy 61%
39 Box Touches 7
32 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Leeds United vs Portsmouth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leeds United and Portsmouth couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Leeds United at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Leeds United had 69% of the ball to Portsmouth's 31%, shots finished 22-5, expected goals 3.39 to 0.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Portsmouth led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Leeds United and 1.67 for Portsmouth.

What was the final score of Leeds United vs Portsmouth?

Leeds United 3-3 Portsmouth in the England - Championship on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leeds United vs Portsmouth?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leeds United win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Leeds United 62%, draw 20%, Portsmouth 17%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Leeds United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leeds United) ✓ Over 2.5
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