Millwall 2-3 Watford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 10 Aug 2024

Millwall
2-3 HT 0-1
Watford
📅10/08/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Millwall vs Watford Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.6
Over 2.5
41%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.95
No
58%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.53
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.67
6+ Goals
8%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.38
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
12%
4.78
X/2
11%
6.05
X/X
14%
3.9
2/1
10%
31.5
2/2
15%
4.72
2/X
8%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
41%
-1.3pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.2pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.6pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.3pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Millwall v Watford — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millwall EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Watford EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +13%
1.25/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.32
-8% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
285 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 71%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
22.2 Crosses 16.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4

Millwall vs Watford Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millwall
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Watford
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.90 xG 1.22
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
217 Passes 367
67% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.03.2024 Millwall Millwall 1-0 HT 1-0 Watford Watford İNCL
28.10.2023 Watford Watford 2-2 HT 1-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
26.12.2022 Watford Watford 0-2 HT 0-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
19.10.2022 Millwall Millwall 3-0 HT 3-0 Watford Watford İNCL
24.04.2021 Watford Watford 1-0 HT 1-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
26.01.2021 Millwall Millwall 0-0 HT 0-0 Watford Watford İNCL

Millwall 2-3 Watford — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millwall
2-3
AWAY Watford
2.00 xG 1.12
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
307 Passes 269
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Millwall vs Watford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Watford nicked a narrow win over Millwall 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; Watford found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Millwall had 54% of the ball to Watford's 46%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 2.00 to 1.12 — on chances, Millwall could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millwall had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Millwall and 0.50 for Watford.

What was the final score of Millwall vs Watford?

Millwall 2-3 Watford in the England - Championship on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millwall vs Watford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Millwall win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Millwall 39%, draw 28%, Watford 32%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Millwall) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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