Middlesbrough 1-0 Swansea City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
30%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.02
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.1
6+ Goals
11%
10.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.24
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.45
X/1
12%
4.26
X/2
7%
9.3
X/X
11%
5.25
2/1
7%
22.3
2/2
15%
6.71
2/X
8%
14.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-7.5pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.1pp
30%
Away Win
22%
+8.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.8pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Swansea City EU Bookmakers 25%
-4% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +25%
1.64/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.59
-6% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
311 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 75%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
21.1 Crosses 16.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Middlesbrough
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Swansea City
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.31 xG 1.20
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
278 Passes 513
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
19 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2024 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-0 HT 1-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
16.12.2023 Swansea City Swansea City 1-2 HT 0-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
11.03.2023 Swansea City Swansea City 1-3 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
27.08.2022 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-1 HT 2-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
23.04.2022 Swansea City Swansea City 1-1 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
04.12.2021 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-0 HT 1-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middlesbrough
1-0
AWAY Swansea City
2.86 xG 0.47
36% Ball Possession 64%
18 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 9
237 Passes 465
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
38 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Middlesbrough vs Swansea City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Middlesbrough squeezed past Swansea City 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Middlesbrough as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Middlesbrough had 36% of the ball to Swansea City's 64%, shots finished 18-5, expected goals 2.86 to 0.47 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Middlesbrough's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Middlesbrough had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Middlesbrough and 0.67 for Swansea City.

What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Swansea City?

Middlesbrough 1-0 Swansea City in the England - Championship on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middlesbrough vs Swansea City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Middlesbrough 46%, draw 24%, Swansea City 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Middlesbrough) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNCL More England - Championship
10 Aug 2024
14:30 Queens Park Rangers vs West Bromwich Analysis →
14:30 Cardiff City vs Sunderland Analysis →
14:30 Leeds United vs Portsmouth Analysis →
14:30 Stoke City vs Coventry Analysis →
14:30 Millwall vs Watford Analysis →
14:30 Oxford United vs Norwich City Analysis →