Nürnberg 3-1 Schalke 04 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 10 Aug 2024

Nürnberg
3-1 HT 0-1
Schalke 04
📅10/08/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Nürnberg vs Schalke 04 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.8
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
42%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.5
No
48%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.64
2-3 Goals
43%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.86
6+ Goals
11%
8.08
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
4.29
1/2
6%
23.15
1/X
5%
12.2
X/1
8%
6.84
X/2
16%
5.27
X/X
11%
5.22
2/1 EV+ ✓
6%
28.5
2/2
20%
2.96
2/X
8%
12.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.5 — our 6% vs market 1.5%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+2.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
41%
Away Win
42%
-0.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
62%
-10.5pp
48%
BTTS No
38%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nürnberg v Schalke 04 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nürnberg EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Schalke 04 EU Bookmakers 46%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.30/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.28
-11% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +126%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
314 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 78%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
20.2 Crosses 21.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.2

Nürnberg vs Schalke 04 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nürnberg
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Schalke 04
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.06 xG 1.63
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
321 Passes 276
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.04.2024 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 2-0 HT 1-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
04.11.2023 Nürnberg Nürnberg 1-2 HT 0-1 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL2
10.01.2023 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 0-1 HT 0-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg HAZ
15.05.2022 Nürnberg Nürnberg 1-2 HT 0-1 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL2
10.12.2021 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 4-1 HT 1-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
12.04.2019 Nürnberg Nürnberg 1-1 HT 0-0 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL1

Nürnberg 3-1 Schalke 04 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nürnberg
3-1
AWAY Schalke 04
0.99 xG 2.05
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 7
306 Passes 325
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 36
6 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nürnberg vs Schalke 04
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nürnberg beat Schalke 04 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Schalke 04 at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Nürnberg had 48% of the ball to Schalke 04's 52%, shots finished 8-15, expected goals 0.99 to 2.05 — the balance of chances actually favoured Schalke 04.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Schalke 04 led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Nürnberg and 1.83 for Schalke 04.

What was the final score of Nürnberg vs Schalke 04?

Nürnberg 3-1 Schalke 04 in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nürnberg vs Schalke 04?

Before kick-off our model rated an Schalke 04 win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Nürnberg 34%, draw 24%, Schalke 04 41%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Schalke 04) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Schalke 04) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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