NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Twente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 10 Aug 2024

NEC Nijmegen
1-2 HT 1-1
Twente
📅10/08/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

NEC Nijmegen vs Twente Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.94
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
31%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.1
Over 2.5
55%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.6
No
44%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.09
2-3 Goals
42%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
3.07
6+ Goals
13%
9.78
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
4.51
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
24.0
1/X
8%
12.6
X/1
13%
6.83
X/2
12%
5.04
X/X
14%
5.01
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
11%
2.93
2/X
8%
12.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.0 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
30%
+8.6pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.4pp
31%
Away Win
43%
-12.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.8pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NEC Nijmegen v Twente — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Twente EU Bookmakers 48%
-1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -17%
1.50/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.25
-12% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +8%
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
289 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 424 · 79%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.8
17.0 Crosses 22.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.6

NEC Nijmegen vs Twente Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Twente
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.11 xG 1.97
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
281 Passes 425
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
20.01.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-0 HT 0-0 Twente Twente HOL
11.11.2023 Twente Twente 3-3 HT 1-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
12.05.2023 Twente Twente 4-0 HT 1-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
07.08.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-1 HT 0-0 Twente Twente HOL
09.04.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-2 HT 0-0 Twente Twente HOL
24.10.2021 Twente Twente 1-2 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL

NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Twente — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
1-2
AWAY Twente
0.92 xG 2.44
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
357 Passes 372
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
30 Box Touches 16
32 Crosses 8
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs Twente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Twente edged past NEC Nijmegen 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 30% / 31%) promised a tight game; Twente found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 51% of the ball to Twente's 49%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 0.92 to 2.44 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Twente's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Twente led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.83 for Twente.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs Twente?

NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Twente in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs Twente?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 39%, draw 30%, Twente 31%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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