PSV Eindhoven 5-1 RKC Waalwijk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 4-0 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
72%
1.11
Draw
14%
8.11
Away
14%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
28%
1.0
Over 2.5
72%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
14%
14.65
2-3 Goals
30%
3.07
4-5 Goals
36%
2.3
6+ Goals
20%
2.61
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
46%
1.13
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
34.5
X/1
16%
3.92
X/2
5%
34.5
X/X
4%
19.95
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
20.05
2/2
5%
34.5
2/X
5%
34.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.05 — our 10% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
72%
Home Win
85%
-12.3pp
14%
Draw
9%
+4.5pp
14%
Away Win
6%
+7.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.3pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 9%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -4%
2.85/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/2.55
+17% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +8%
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
444 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
43.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
23.7 Crosses 10.9
0.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV Eindhoven
6W-0D-0L
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
2.64 xG 0.72
64% Ball Possession 36%
26 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
522 Passes 264
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
47 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.05.2024 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-1 HT 1-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
02.09.2023 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 0-4 HT 0-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
05.03.2023 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 0-1 HT 0-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
11.09.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 1-0 HT 0-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
10.04.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 2-0 HT 1-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
19.12.2021 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-4 HT 0-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV Eindhoven
5-1
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
3.28 xG 1.30
78% Ball Possession 22%
21 Total Shots 9
12 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
681 Passes 141
91% Pass Accuracy 68%
45 Box Touches 8
19 Crosses 9
POST-MATCH PSV Eindhoven vs RKC Waalwijk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven cruised past RKC Waalwijk 5-1. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had PSV Eindhoven as the likeliest winner at 72%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (72%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, PSV Eindhoven had 78% of the ball to RKC Waalwijk's 22%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 3.28 to 1.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.33 for RKC Waalwijk.

What was the final score of PSV Eindhoven vs RKC Waalwijk?

PSV Eindhoven 5-1 RKC Waalwijk in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV Eindhoven vs RKC Waalwijk?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 72%, with the full match-result split PSV Eindhoven 72%, draw 14%, RKC Waalwijk 14%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSV Eindhoven), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
10 Aug 2024
17:30 Feyenoord vs Willem II Analysis →
19:45 NEC Nijmegen vs Twente Analysis →
21:00 Almere City vs AZ Alkmaar Analysis →