Liepaja 3-0 FS Jelgava — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
24%
X/2
11%
X/X
6%
2/1
4%
2/2
7%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
56%
-4.7pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+3.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.5pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liepaja EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 22%
-20% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +1%
1.41/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.45
-31% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
369 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 76%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
26.3 Crosses 15.0
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liepaja
1W-2D-3L
AWAY FS Jelgava
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.30 xG 1.34
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
327 Passes 227
76% Pass Accuracy 67%
30 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.07.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-4 HT 0-2 Liepaja Liepaja LETK
02.06.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 1-1 HT 0-1 Liepaja Liepaja LET
23.04.2024 Liepaja Liepaja 0-1 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
07.10.2023 Liepaja Liepaja 1-1 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
21.07.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 3-2 HT 1-1 Liepaja Liepaja LET
22.05.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-1 HT 1-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liepaja
3-0
AWAY FS Jelgava
1.35 xG 0.78
70% Ball Possession 30%
17 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
452 Passes 149
86% Pass Accuracy 67%
27 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Liepaja vs FS Jelgava
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liepaja swept aside FS Jelgava 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Liepaja as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Liepaja had 70% of the ball to FS Jelgava's 30%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.35 to 0.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FS Jelgava led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Liepaja and 1.67 for FS Jelgava.

What was the final score of Liepaja vs FS Jelgava?

Liepaja 3-0 FS Jelgava in the Latvia - Virsliga on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liepaja vs FS Jelgava?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liepaja win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Liepaja 51%, draw 26%, FS Jelgava 23%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liepaja), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Liepaja) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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