Krasnodar 2-1 CSKA Moskova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.46
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
34%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.09
2-3 Goals
45%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.79
6+ Goals
9%
16.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.09 — our 28% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.66
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
7%
13.15
X/1
17%
5.36
X/2
13%
5.61
X/X
8%
4.39
2/1
9%
29.5
2/2
14%
3.9
2/X
9%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
37%
+4.7pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.0pp
34%
Away Win
35%
-0.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.5pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY CSKA Moskova EU Bookmakers 38%
+18% / +37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -6%
1.38/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.43
+30% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
297 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 76%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
14.1 Crosses 16.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krasnodar
3W-2D-1L
AWAY CSKA Moskova
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.75 xG 1.15
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
420 Passes 304
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.07.2024 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-0 HT 0-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUK
10.12.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-0 HT 0-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
29.10.2023 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 1-0 HT 1-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
11.06.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-1 HT 0-1 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUK
27.05.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 0-0 HT 0-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
28.02.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-0 HT 0-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krasnodar
2-1
AWAY CSKA Moskova
1.62 xG 1.16
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
419 Passes 317
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Krasnodar vs CSKA Moskova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krasnodar edged past CSKA Moskova 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Krasnodar as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Krasnodar had 54% of the ball to CSKA Moskova's 46%, shots finished 16-6, expected goals 1.62 to 1.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Krasnodar had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Krasnodar and 0.33 for CSKA Moskova.

What was the final score of Krasnodar vs CSKA Moskova?

Krasnodar 2-1 CSKA Moskova in the Russia - Premier League on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krasnodar vs CSKA Moskova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Krasnodar win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Krasnodar 42%, draw 24%, CSKA Moskova 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Krasnodar) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Krasnodar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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