Zenit St. Petersburg 1-0 Dinamo Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.49
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
20%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.43
Over 2.5
48%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
5.29
2-3 Goals
42%
1.98
4-5 Goals
20%
2.69
6+ Goals
11%
6.72
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.29 — our 27% vs market 14.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.81
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.5
X/1
16%
3.88
X/2
8%
12.35
X/X
15%
6.97
2/1
6%
19.75
2/2
7%
8.62
2/X
5%
16.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
62%
-6.6pp
24%
Draw
20%
+3.5pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+3.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
38%
+14.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
62%
-14.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.8pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zenit St. Petersburg EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +12%
1.90/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.56
+17% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -10%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
423 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 77%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
21.6 Crosses 14.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zenit St. Petersburg
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.41 xG 0.45
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
535 Passes 250
87% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 11
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.04.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-0 HT 0-0 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
13.03.2024 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 2-0 HT 2-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUK
29.11.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-0 HT 0-0 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUK
06.08.2023 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 2-3 HT 1-2 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
22.04.2023 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 3-1 HT 1-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
15.03.2023 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 1-1 HT 1-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUSK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zenit St. Petersburg
1-0
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
1.33 xG 1.32
55% Ball Possession 45%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
446 Passes 351
89% Pass Accuracy 86%
24 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Zenit St. Petersburg vs Dinamo Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zenit St. Petersburg nicked a narrow win over Dinamo Moscow 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Zenit St. Petersburg as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Zenit St. Petersburg had 55% of the ball to Dinamo Moscow's 45%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 1.33 to 1.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Moscow led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Zenit St. Petersburg and 1.17 for Dinamo Moscow.

What was the final score of Zenit St. Petersburg vs Dinamo Moscow?

Zenit St. Petersburg 1-0 Dinamo Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zenit St. Petersburg vs Dinamo Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zenit St. Petersburg win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Zenit St. Petersburg 56%, draw 24%, Dinamo Moscow 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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