Freiburg II 5-3 Homburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 10 Aug 2025

Freiburg II
5-3 HT 2-3
Homburg
📅10/08/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Regional League – 2025/2026

Freiburg II vs Homburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.08
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
42%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.23
Over 2.5
59%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.53
No
43%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
29%
+6.4pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.8pp
42%
Away Win
47%
-4.6pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
61%
-4.0pp
43%
BTTS No
39%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Freiburg II v Homburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg II EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Homburg EU Bookmakers 50%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.59/2.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.04
+18% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +24%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
342 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 86%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

Freiburg II vs Homburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg II
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Homburg
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.03.2025 Freiburg II Freiburg II 3-2 HT 1-2 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
30.08.2024 Homburg Homburg 2-2 HT 1-0 Freiburg II Freiburg II ALMBÖL
29.05.2021 Freiburg II Freiburg II 0-1 HT 0-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
17.02.2021 Homburg Homburg 1-3 HT 1-2 Freiburg II Freiburg II ALMBÖL
22.02.2020 Homburg Homburg 3-0 HT 0-0 Freiburg II Freiburg II ALMBÖL
22.08.2015 Freiburg II Freiburg II 0-2 HT 0-1 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Freiburg II vs Homburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg II got the better of Homburg 5-3. It was 2-3 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Homburg at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Homburg led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Freiburg II and 1.83 for Homburg.

What was the final score of Freiburg II vs Homburg?

Freiburg II 5-3 Homburg in the Germany - Regional League on 10/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg II vs Homburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Homburg win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Freiburg II 36%, draw 22%, Homburg 42%. The final score 5-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Homburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Homburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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