Santa Fe 4-1 Alianza Petrolera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Cup, 10 Sep 2025

📅10/09/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.57
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
17%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.71
Over 2.5
41%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.09
No
59%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
23%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
59%
+0.9pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.3pp
17%
Away Win
16%
+0.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
55%
+4.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
45%
-4.8pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.2pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 20%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
1.74/0.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/2.26
+10% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -38%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
326 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santa Fe
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.98 xG 1.11
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
268 Passes 242
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.08.2025 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-1 HT 0-1 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOLK
26.05.2025 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 6-1 HT 3-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
27.09.2024 Santa Fe Santa Fe 2-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
04.03.2024 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-1 HT 0-1 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
18.09.2023 Santa Fe Santa Fe 0-1 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
10.04.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 3-1 HT 3-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
POST-MATCH Santa Fe vs Alianza Petrolera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santa Fe ran out comfortable winners over Alianza Petrolera 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Santa Fe as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Petrolera led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Santa Fe and 1.83 for Alianza Petrolera.

What was the final score of Santa Fe vs Alianza Petrolera?

Santa Fe 4-1 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Cup on 10/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santa Fe vs Alianza Petrolera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santa Fe win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Santa Fe 60%, draw 23%, Alianza Petrolera 17%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santa Fe) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Santa Fe) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →