İzlanda 3-5 Ukrayna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 10 Oct 2025

📅10/10/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
2.84
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
49%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.75
Over 2.5
51%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.81
No
42%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2.91
2-3 Goals
47%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.79
6+ Goals
9%
16.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.72
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
5%
13.65
X/1
7%
6.44
X/2
16%
5.03
X/X
14%
4.41
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
27%
3.23
2/X
6%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
31%
-5.2pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.5pp
49%
Away Win
41%
+7.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
53%
-4.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
47%
+4.2pp
58%
BTTS Yes
51%
+6.6pp
42%
BTTS No
49%
-6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İzlanda EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Ukrayna EU Bookmakers 45%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +43% / +43%
1.13/1.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.11
+2% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +84% / +7%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
280 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 82%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.0
22.8 Crosses 12.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İzlanda
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Ukrayna
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.12 xG 0.46
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
242 Passes 475
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Box Touches 12
13 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.03.2024 Ukrayna Ukrayna 2-1 HT 0-1 İzlanda İzlanda AVŞE
05.09.2017 İzlanda İzlanda 2-0 HT 0-0 Ukrayna Ukrayna DKE
05.09.2016 Ukrayna Ukrayna 1-1 HT 1-1 İzlanda İzlanda DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İzlanda
3-5
AWAY Ukrayna
0.97 xG 1.00
65% Ball Possession 35%
9 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 2
555 Passes 252
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH İzlanda vs Ukrayna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ukrayna saw off İzlanda 5-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ukrayna as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 5-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, İzlanda had 65% of the ball to Ukrayna's 35%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 0.97 to 1.00.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for İzlanda and 1.00 for Ukrayna.

What was the final score of İzlanda vs Ukrayna?

İzlanda 3-5 Ukrayna in the World Cup Qualifiers on 10/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İzlanda vs Ukrayna?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ukrayna win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split İzlanda 26%, draw 25%, Ukrayna 49%. The final score 3-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ukrayna), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ukrayna) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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