Slaven Belupo 1-1 NK Varazdin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 10 Nov 2024

📅10/11/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.38
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
40%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.71
Over 2.5
39%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.81
No
56%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.84
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.12
6+ Goals
7%
19.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.84 — our 34% vs market 29.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
38%
-7.3pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.5pp
40%
Away Win
32%
+7.8pp
61%
Under 2.5
55%
+6.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
45%
-6.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.6pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 36%
-3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +0%
1.26/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/0.93
+11% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +17%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
324 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 77%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
20.4 Crosses 19.3
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Slaven Belupo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.97 xG 1.46
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
225 Passes 356
68% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
24.08.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-0 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
06.04.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-1 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
26.01.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-2 HT 1-1 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
06.10.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 3-2 HT 2-2 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
28.07.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-2 HT 2-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
07.04.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 1-1 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Slaven Belupo
1-1
AWAY NK Varazdin
0.90 xG 1.07
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 1
264 Passes 411
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
24 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Slaven Belupo and NK Varazdin couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (31% / 29% / 40%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (61%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Slaven Belupo had 43% of the ball to NK Varazdin's 57%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 0.90 to 1.07.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Slaven Belupo and 1.50 for NK Varazdin.

What was the final score of Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin?

Slaven Belupo 1-1 NK Varazdin in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin?

Before kick-off our model rated an NK Varazdin win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Slaven Belupo 31%, draw 29%, NK Varazdin 40%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (NK Varazdin), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NK Varazdin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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