PAOK 2-3 Olympiakos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 10 Nov 2024

📅10/11/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.74
Over 2.5
42%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.81
No
57%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.91
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.01
6+ Goals
9%
18.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.91 — our 31% vs market 28.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.04
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
18%
4.73
X/2
11%
6.8
X/X
13%
4.13
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
13%
5.09
2/X
7%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
44%
-2.8pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.5pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+4.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
54%
+4.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
46%
-4.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-8.1pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PAOK EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Olympiakos EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
1.14/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.03
-15% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
369 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 74%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
17.4 Crosses 16.8
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PAOK
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Olympiakos
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.10 xG 1.37
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
314 Passes 296
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
12.05.2024 PAOK PAOK 2-0 HT 1-0 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
21.04.2024 Olympiakos Olympiakos 2-1 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
18.02.2024 PAOK PAOK 1-4 HT 1-1 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
05.11.2023 Olympiakos Olympiakos 2-4 HT 0-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
14.05.2023 PAOK PAOK 0-1 HT 0-1 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
05.04.2023 Olympiakos Olympiakos 3-1 HT 0-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PAOK
2-3
AWAY Olympiakos
1.83 xG 2.45
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 5
337 Passes 167
74% Pass Accuracy 63%
32 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH PAOK vs Olympiakos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Olympiakos squeezed past PAOK 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was PAOK at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, PAOK had 63% of the ball to Olympiakos's 37%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 1.83 to 2.45.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Olympiakos led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for PAOK and 2.00 for Olympiakos.

What was the final score of PAOK vs Olympiakos?

PAOK 2-3 Olympiakos in the Greece - Super League on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PAOK vs Olympiakos?

Before kick-off our model rated a PAOK win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split PAOK 41%, draw 27%, Olympiakos 32%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (PAOK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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YUN More Greece - Super League
10 Nov 2024
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