Olympiakos 2-1 PAOK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
39%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.61
No
53%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.82
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.21
6+ Goals
10%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.82 — our 28% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.12
1/2
8%
30.0
1/X
8%
12.8
X/1
8%
5.1
X/2
14%
6.34
X/X
15%
4.94
2/1
6%
24.85
2/2
17%
4.24
2/X
5%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
42%
-8.5pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
39%
Away Win
32%
+6.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.0pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Olympiakos EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY PAOK EU Bookmakers 36%
-2% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +18%
0.97/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/0.97
-3% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +17%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
334 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 78%
15.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
20.9 Crosses 12.1
3.2 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Olympiakos
3W-1D-2L
AWAY PAOK
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.32 xG 1.16
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
318 Passes 332
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.02.2024 PAOK PAOK 1-4 HT 1-1 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
05.11.2023 Olympiakos Olympiakos 2-4 HT 0-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
14.05.2023 PAOK PAOK 0-1 HT 0-1 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
05.04.2023 Olympiakos Olympiakos 3-1 HT 0-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
05.02.2023 PAOK PAOK 0-0 HT 0-0 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
17.10.2022 Olympiakos Olympiakos 1-2 HT 1-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Olympiakos
2-1
AWAY PAOK
1.67 xG 0.45
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 3
255 Passes 262
72% Pass Accuracy 71%
13 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Olympiakos vs PAOK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Olympiakos squeezed past PAOK 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 28% / 39% — and on the day Olympiakos made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Olympiakos had 50% of the ball to PAOK's 50%, shots finished 9-7, expected goals 1.67 to 0.45 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Olympiakos's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Olympiakos had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Olympiakos and 1.33 for PAOK.

What was the final score of Olympiakos vs PAOK?

Olympiakos 2-1 PAOK in the Greece - Super League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Olympiakos vs PAOK?

Before kick-off our model rated an PAOK win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Olympiakos 33%, draw 28%, PAOK 39%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (PAOK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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