Aris Saloniki 1-2 AEK Atina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
7.18
Draw
25%
4.62
Away
57%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.09
No
48%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.78
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.22
6+ Goals
10%
11.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
14.35
1/2
8%
24.0
1/X
7%
22.3
X/1
8%
17.05
X/2
13%
3.37
X/X
9%
6.61
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
36%
1.6
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
21.45
Value flag · 2/X at 21.45 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
11%
+7.0pp
25%
Draw
18%
+6.8pp
57%
Away Win
71%
-13.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
44%
+8.3pp
48%
BTTS No
56%
-8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY AEK Atina EU Bookmakers 75%
+8% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -12%
1.05/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/0.74
+150% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -31%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
239 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 403 · 82%
12.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.6
7.5 Crosses 22.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aris Saloniki
0W-3D-3L
AWAY AEK Atina
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.81 xG 1.80
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
281 Passes 420
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
10 Box Touches 31
5 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.04.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-0 HT 2-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
03.03.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 3-3 HT 1-1 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
17.01.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-1 HT 0-1 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUK
10.01.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 0-0 HT 0-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUK
04.12.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 1-0 HT 0-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
08.05.2023 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-2 HT 1-2 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aris Saloniki
1-2
AWAY AEK Atina
0.33 xG 3.34
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 28
3 Shots on Target 12
2 Corners 9
153 Passes 305
63% Pass Accuracy 79%
10 Box Touches 58
6 Crosses 39
6 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aris Saloniki vs AEK Atina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AEK Atina squeezed past Aris Saloniki 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had AEK Atina as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Aris Saloniki had 37% of the ball to AEK Atina's 63%, shots finished 9-28, expected goals 0.33 to 3.34 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold AEK Atina's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AEK Atina led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Aris Saloniki and 1.50 for AEK Atina.

What was the final score of Aris Saloniki vs AEK Atina?

Aris Saloniki 1-2 AEK Atina in the Greece - Super League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aris Saloniki vs AEK Atina?

Before kick-off our model rated an AEK Atina win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Aris Saloniki 18%, draw 25%, AEK Atina 57%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AEK Atina), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AEK Atina) ✓ BTTS Yes
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