Deportivo Alaves 0-1 Girona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 11 Jan 2025

Deportivo Alaves
0-1 HT 0-0
Girona
📅11/01/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Deportivo Alaves vs Girona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.84
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
32%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.64
Over 2.5
39%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.59
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
4.26
6+ Goals
9%
21.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.59 — our 34% vs market 31.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.63
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
7%
13.35
X/1
13%
6.19
X/2
12%
5.08
X/X
16%
3.91
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
14%
3.49
2/X
9%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
32%
+4.3pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.5pp
32%
Away Win
39%
-6.8pp
61%
Under 2.5
57%
+3.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
43%
-3.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.2pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Deportivo Alaves v Girona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Alaves EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Girona EU Bookmakers 43%
+7% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +11%
1.17/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.94/1.25
+5% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -8%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
260 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 77%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.1
21.4 Crosses 19.7
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

Deportivo Alaves vs Girona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Alaves
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Girona
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.34 xG 1.16
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
283 Passes 419
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.05.2024 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 2-2 HT 1-2 Girona Girona İS1
18.12.2023 Girona Girona 3-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
18.05.2019 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 2-1 HT 1-0 Girona Girona İS1
12.01.2019 Girona Girona 1-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
05.12.2018 Girona Girona 2-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İSPK
31.10.2018 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 2-2 HT 0-1 Girona Girona İSPK

Deportivo Alaves 0-1 Girona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Alaves
0-1
AWAY Girona
1.30 xG 0.50
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 3
2 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
272 Passes 402
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 17
33 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Deportivo Alaves vs Girona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Girona squeezed past Deportivo Alaves 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 32% / 32%) promised a tight game; Girona found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Deportivo Alaves had 43% of the ball to Girona's 57%, shots finished 11-3, expected goals 1.30 to 0.50 — on chances, Deportivo Alaves could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Girona led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Deportivo Alaves and 1.83 for Girona.

What was the final score of Deportivo Alaves vs Girona?

Deportivo Alaves 0-1 Girona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Alaves vs Girona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Alaves win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Alaves 36%, draw 32%, Girona 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Deportivo Alaves) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Alaves) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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