Ternana 2-1 Gubbio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 11 Jan 2025

📅11/01/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.43
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
18%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.4
No
54%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.6
2-3 Goals
38%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
4.03
6+ Goals
8%
19.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
5%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
66%
-9.8pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.0pp
18%
Away Win
12%
+5.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
38%
+8.6pp
54%
BTTS No
62%
-8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ternana EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Gubbio EU Bookmakers 15%
+1% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -14%
2.97/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.81
+73% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -5%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
366 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ternana
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Gubbio
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
6 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
07.09.2024 Gubbio Gubbio 0-0 HT 0-0 Ternana Ternana İTC
01.08.2019 Gubbio Gubbio 2-1 HT 1-1 Ternana Ternana HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ternana
2-1
AWAY Gubbio
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ternana vs Gubbio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ternana squeezed past Gubbio 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ternana as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ternana had 61% of the ball to Gubbio's 39%, shots finished 16-10.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Gubbio led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Ternana and 1.00 for Gubbio.

What was the final score of Ternana vs Gubbio?

Ternana 2-1 Gubbio in the Italy - Serie C on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ternana vs Gubbio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ternana win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Ternana 56%, draw 26%, Gubbio 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ternana) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ternana) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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