Bala Town 0-2 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 11 Jan 2025

📅11/01/2025 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.91
Over 2.5
44%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.25
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.29
6+ Goals
8%
12.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 32% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-3.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+2.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.3pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bala Town EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +6%
1.25/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.82/1.49
-24% / +63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +53% / -7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
331 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bala Town
0W-6D-0L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 3
31.12.2024 Bala Town Bala Town 0-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
26.08.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
21.04.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-2 HT 1-1 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
08.03.2024 Bala Town Bala Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
28.11.2023 Bala Town Bala Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
29.08.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
POST-MATCH Bala Town vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caernarfon Town saw off Bala Town 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Bala Town at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 6 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Bala Town and 0.83 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Bala Town vs Caernarfon Town?

Bala Town 0-2 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bala Town vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bala Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Bala Town 42%, draw 27%, Caernarfon Town 31%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Bala Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bala Town) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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