Caernarfon Town 2-2 Bala Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.57
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
44%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.33
Over 2.5
62%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.49
No
38%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.78
2-3 Goals
36%
1.93
4-5 Goals
26%
2.82
6+ Goals
17%
7.71
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
35%
-3.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.0pp
44%
Away Win
41%
+3.3pp
38%
Under 2.5
39%
-0.8pp
62%
Over 2.5
61%
+0.8pp
62%
BTTS Yes
63%
-1.4pp
38%
BTTS No
37%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Bala Town EU Bookmakers 45%
+4% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +10%
1.68/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.09/1.09
+34% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / -1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
287 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caernarfon Town
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Bala Town
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
08.03.2024 Bala Town Bala Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
28.11.2023 Bala Town Bala Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
29.08.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
30.12.2022 Bala Town Bala Town 3-0 HT 2-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
26.12.2022 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-5 HT 1-2 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
20.09.2022 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-4 HT 0-2 Bala Town Bala Town GALLK
POST-MATCH Caernarfon Town vs Bala Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caernarfon Town and Bala Town shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Bala Town at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (62%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bala Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Caernarfon Town and 2.50 for Bala Town.

What was the final score of Caernarfon Town vs Bala Town?

Caernarfon Town 2-2 Bala Town in the Wales - Premier League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caernarfon Town vs Bala Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bala Town win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Caernarfon Town 32%, draw 24%, Bala Town 44%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bala Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bala Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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