Aberystwyth Town 3-0 Pontypridd Town AFC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 21 Apr 2024

Aberystwyth Town
3-0 HT 1-0
Pontypridd Town AFC
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Wales - Premier League – 2023/2024

Aberystwyth Town vs Pontypridd Town AFC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.27
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
37%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.97
Over 2.5
43%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.67
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
18%
3.29
6+ Goals
8%
11.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.67 — our 32% vs market 22.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
17%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
40%
-6.1pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.3pp
37%
Away Win
33%
+3.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
47%
+9.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
53%
-9.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-10.2pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aberystwyth Town v Pontypridd Town AFC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aberystwyth Town EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Pontypridd Town AFC EU Bookmakers 37%
+5% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.49/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.40
+5% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / -15%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
288 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 2.6

Aberystwyth Town vs Pontypridd Town AFC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aberystwyth Town
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Pontypridd Town AFC
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
09.04.2024 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC 0-0 HT 0-0 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
26.12.2023 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC 2-0 HT 1-0 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
19.09.2023 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC GALLK
29.08.2023 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC GAL
01.04.2023 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC 1-1 HT 1-0 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
18.02.2023 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 3-3 HT 1-0 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC GAL
POST-MATCH Aberystwyth Town vs Pontypridd Town AFC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aberystwyth Town ran out comfortable winners over Pontypridd Town AFC 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (34% / 29% / 37%) promised a tight game; Aberystwyth Town found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pontypridd Town AFC led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Aberystwyth Town and 1.33 for Pontypridd Town AFC.

What was the final score of Aberystwyth Town vs Pontypridd Town AFC?

Aberystwyth Town 3-0 Pontypridd Town AFC in the Wales - Premier League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aberystwyth Town vs Pontypridd Town AFC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pontypridd Town AFC win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Aberystwyth Town 34%, draw 29%, Pontypridd Town AFC 37%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Pontypridd Town AFC), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pontypridd Town AFC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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