Colwyn Bay 1-0 Barry Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.19
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.18
Over 2.5
47%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
4.24
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
3.0
6+ Goals
9%
9.26
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.24 — our 27% vs market 18.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.2pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.7pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-0.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.5pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Colwyn Bay EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Barry Town EU Bookmakers 37%
-36% / -36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.21/2.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.12
-16% / -48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
335 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 393 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.9 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Colwyn Bay
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Barry Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 14
9 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 4
09.03.2024 Barry Town Barry Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GAL
16.12.2023 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay 2-0 HT 2-0 Barry Town Barry Town GALWK
28.10.2023 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay 0-1 HT 0-0 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
19.08.2023 Barry Town Barry Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GAL
POST-MATCH Colwyn Bay vs Barry Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Colwyn Bay edged past Barry Town 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; Colwyn Bay found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Colwyn Bay and 0.75 for Barry Town.

What was the final score of Colwyn Bay vs Barry Town?

Colwyn Bay 1-0 Barry Town in the Wales - Premier League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Colwyn Bay vs Barry Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Colwyn Bay win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Colwyn Bay 38%, draw 28%, Barry Town 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Colwyn Bay), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Colwyn Bay) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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