Penybont 1-0 Haverfordwest County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 21 Apr 2024

Penybont
1-0 HT 1-0
Haverfordwest County
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Wales - Premier League – 2023/2024

Penybont vs Haverfordwest County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.8
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.19
2-3 Goals
45%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
3.68
6+ Goals
6%
15.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 32% vs market 25.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
3%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-5.7pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.0pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.6pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Penybont v Haverfordwest County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penybont EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Haverfordwest County EU Bookmakers 27%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -15%
1.31/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.50
-17% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
354 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7

Penybont vs Haverfordwest County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penybont
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Haverfordwest County
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.03.2024 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County 0-1 HT 0-1 Penybont Penybont GAL
17.10.2023 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County 3-2 HT 3-1 Penybont Penybont GAL
18.08.2023 Penybont Penybont 2-0 HT 1-0 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County GAL
04.07.2023 Penybont Penybont 1-0 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County HAZ
02.12.2022 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County 2-1 HT 2-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
30.08.2022 Penybont Penybont 3-2 HT 1-1 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County GAL
POST-MATCH Penybont vs Haverfordwest County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont squeezed past Haverfordwest County 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Penybont as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penybont had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Penybont and 1.17 for Haverfordwest County.

What was the final score of Penybont vs Haverfordwest County?

Penybont 1-0 Haverfordwest County in the Wales - Premier League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penybont vs Haverfordwest County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Penybont 46%, draw 29%, Haverfordwest County 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Penybont), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Penybont) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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