Cardiff MU 1-3 Newtown — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.29
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
43%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.29
Over 2.5
47%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.5
No
51%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.82
2-3 Goals
40%
1.93
4-5 Goals
24%
2.81
6+ Goals
10%
7.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.82 — our 26% vs market 16.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
27%
+4.2pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
43%
Away Win
49%
-6.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
40%
+13.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
60%
-13.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
62%
-13.6pp
51%
BTTS No
38%
+13.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cardiff MU EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Newtown EU Bookmakers 53%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
0.84/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.02/2.04
-25% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -51%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
381 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cardiff MU
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Newtown
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.03.2024 Newtown Newtown 2-0 HT 0-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
17.10.2023 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 2-1 HT 0-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
01.09.2023 Newtown Newtown 2-1 HT 2-1 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
15.04.2023 Newtown Newtown 1-2 HT 0-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
10.03.2023 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 0-0 HT 0-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
22.12.2022 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 2-1 HT 1-1 Newtown Newtown GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cardiff MU
1-3
AWAY Newtown
65% Ball Possession 35%
15 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cardiff MU vs Newtown
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newtown got the better of Cardiff MU 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Newtown as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Cardiff MU had 65% of the ball to Newtown's 35%, shots finished 15-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cardiff MU had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cardiff MU and 1.17 for Newtown.

What was the final score of Cardiff MU vs Newtown?

Cardiff MU 1-3 Newtown in the Wales - Premier League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cardiff MU vs Newtown?

Before kick-off our model rated an Newtown win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Cardiff MU 31%, draw 26%, Newtown 43%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newtown) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Newtown) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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