Guanacasteca 1-0 Municipal Liberia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Costa Rica - Premier League, 11 Jan 2025

📅11/01/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.57
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
35%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.74
Over 2.5
37%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
10%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
35%
-1.2pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.4pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-1.1pp
63%
Under 2.5
54%
+9.1pp
37%
Over 2.5
46%
-9.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.6pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guanacasteca EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Municipal Liberia EU Bookmakers 40%
+4% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -1%
1.30/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.35
+3% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -11%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
245 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guanacasteca
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Municipal Liberia
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 4
28.10.2024 Guanacasteca Guanacasteca 2-0 HT 1-0 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia KOSTA
15.09.2024 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia 0-1 HT 0-0 Guanacasteca Guanacasteca KOSTA
13.04.2024 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia 1-0 HT 1-0 Guanacasteca Guanacasteca KOSTA
22.02.2024 Guanacasteca Guanacasteca 1-1 HT 1-0 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia KOSTA
23.11.2023 Guanacasteca Guanacasteca 4-2 HT 2-1 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia KOSTA
16.09.2023 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia 0-1 HT 0-1 Guanacasteca Guanacasteca KOSTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guanacasteca
1-0
AWAY Municipal Liberia
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Guanacasteca vs Municipal Liberia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guanacasteca squeezed past Municipal Liberia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 31% / 35%) promised a tight game; Guanacasteca found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Guanacasteca had 40% of the ball to Municipal Liberia's 60%, shots finished 9-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guanacasteca had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Guanacasteca and 0.67 for Municipal Liberia.

What was the final score of Guanacasteca vs Municipal Liberia?

Guanacasteca 1-0 Municipal Liberia in the Costa Rica - Premier League on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guanacasteca vs Municipal Liberia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Municipal Liberia win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Guanacasteca 34%, draw 31%, Municipal Liberia 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Municipal Liberia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Municipal Liberia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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