Sporting CP 1-1 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - League Cup, 11 Jan 2025

📅11/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.8
Draw
36%
3.18
Away
32%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.82
Over 2.5
36%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.7
No
59%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.14
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
3.51
6+ Goals
8%
14.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.14 — our 34% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.36
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
11%
12.85
X/1
14%
6.28
X/2
13%
5.25
X/X
18%
4.42
2/1
7%
32.5
2/2
14%
3.37
2/X
6%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
-0.5pp
36%
Draw
28%
+7.5pp
32%
Away Win
39%
-7.1pp
64%
Under 2.5
51%
+12.4pp
36%
Over 2.5
49%
-12.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
55%
-13.5pp
59%
BTTS No
45%
+13.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 43%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-100% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
299 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Benfica
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.32 xG 1.61
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
357 Passes 366
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
28 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 3
29.12.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-0 HT 1-0 Benfica Benfica POR
06.04.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-1 HT 1-1 Benfica Benfica POR
02.04.2024 Benfica Benfica 2-2 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POK
29.02.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-1 HT 1-0 Benfica Benfica POK
12.11.2023 Benfica Benfica 2-1 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
21.05.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-2 HT 2-0 Benfica Benfica POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP
1-1
AWAY Benfica
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 7
POST-MATCH Sporting CP vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP and Benfica shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match split (32% / 36% / 32%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (64%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Sporting CP had 44% of the ball to Benfica's 56%, shots finished 11-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sporting CP and 1.33 for Benfica.

What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Benfica?

Sporting CP 1-1 Benfica in the Portugal - League Cup on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP 32%, draw 36%, Benfica 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Draw), Under 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Draw) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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