Olympiakos 2-1 Aris Saloniki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 11 Jan 2025

📅11/01/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.32
Draw
25%
4.62
Away
15%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.44
No
58%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.1
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
22%
3.43
6+ Goals
9%
13.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 31% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.57
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
24.7
X/1
21%
3.24
X/2
5%
20.35
X/X
11%
6.3
2/1
9%
28.5
2/2
6%
18.65
2/X
7%
26.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
72%
-11.9pp
25%
Draw
19%
+5.9pp
16%
Away Win
10%
+6.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
37%
+5.0pp
58%
BTTS No
63%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Olympiakos EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 12%
+2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +18%
2.15/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/1.75
+27% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +18%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
416 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 75%
30.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.9
26.2 Crosses 8.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Olympiakos
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Aris Saloniki
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.19 xG 0.80
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
417 Passes 305
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 11
25 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.09.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 2-1 HT 2-0 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
24.04.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-1 HT 0-0 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
03.04.2024 Olympiakos Olympiakos 3-0 HT 1-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
21.01.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-2 HT 0-2 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
27.09.2023 Olympiakos Olympiakos 4-1 HT 1-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
26.04.2023 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 2-1 HT 1-0 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Olympiakos
2-1
AWAY Aris Saloniki
1.60 xG 0.29
65% Ball Possession 35%
14 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 0
423 Passes 188
83% Pass Accuracy 63%
27 Box Touches 5
42 Crosses 0
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Olympiakos vs Aris Saloniki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Olympiakos edged past Aris Saloniki 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Olympiakos as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Olympiakos had 65% of the ball to Aris Saloniki's 35%, shots finished 14-5, expected goals 1.60 to 0.29 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Olympiakos's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Olympiakos had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Olympiakos and 1.17 for Aris Saloniki.

What was the final score of Olympiakos vs Aris Saloniki?

Olympiakos 2-1 Aris Saloniki in the Greece - Super League on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Olympiakos vs Aris Saloniki?

Before kick-off our model rated a Olympiakos win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Olympiakos 60%, draw 25%, Aris Saloniki 16%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Olympiakos) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Olympiakos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →