Aris Saloniki 2-1 Olympiakos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.65
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
50%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.15
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.72
6+ Goals
10%
15.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 28% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
8.33
1/2
7%
24.85
1/X
8%
16.1
X/1
10%
10.2
X/2
16%
3.84
X/X
12%
4.84
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
27%
2.13
2/X
7%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
19%
+4.0pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.5pp
50%
Away Win
56%
-5.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.1pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Olympiakos EU Bookmakers 60%
+13% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +9%
1.17/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/0.71
+63% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +20%
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
264 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 81%
15.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
14.7 Crosses 16.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aris Saloniki
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Olympiakos
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.84 xG 2.29
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 8
325 Passes 406
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 28
8 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.04.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-1 HT 0-0 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
03.04.2024 Olympiakos Olympiakos 3-0 HT 1-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
21.01.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-2 HT 0-2 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
27.09.2023 Olympiakos Olympiakos 4-1 HT 1-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
26.04.2023 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 2-1 HT 1-0 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
02.04.2023 Olympiakos Olympiakos 2-2 HT 1-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aris Saloniki
2-1
AWAY Olympiakos
1.14 xG 1.37
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
219 Passes 412
70% Pass Accuracy 86%
9 Box Touches 17
9 Crosses 33
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Aris Saloniki vs Olympiakos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aris Saloniki squeezed past Olympiakos 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Olympiakos at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aris Saloniki had 38% of the ball to Olympiakos's 62%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 1.14 to 1.37.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Olympiakos led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Aris Saloniki and 2.17 for Olympiakos.

What was the final score of Aris Saloniki vs Olympiakos?

Aris Saloniki 2-1 Olympiakos in the Greece - Super League on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aris Saloniki vs Olympiakos?

Before kick-off our model rated an Olympiakos win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Aris Saloniki 23%, draw 27%, Olympiakos 50%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Olympiakos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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