Metz 0-4 Montpellier — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 11 Jan 2026

Metz
0-4 HT 0-2
Montpellier
📅11/01/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Cup – 2025/2026

Metz vs Montpellier Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
35%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.65
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.22
6+ Goals
10%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.65 — our 28% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.09
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
7%
12.3
X/1
16%
5.31
X/2 EV+ ✗
17%
6.95
X/X
9%
4.84
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
12%
4.7
2/X
9%
12.85
Value flag · X/2 at 6.95 — our 17% vs market 10.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.0pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.5pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+5.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.1pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Metz v Montpellier — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Metz EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Montpellier EU Bookmakers 33%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +55% / +55%
0.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/0.00
-100% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / –
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
355 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 81%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
– Crosses 18.0
– Yellow Cards –

Metz vs Montpellier Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Metz
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Montpellier
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.20 xG 1.53
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
314 Passes 364
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 21
23 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.02.2024 Montpellier Montpellier 3-0 HT 1-0 Metz Metz FR1
17.12.2023 Metz Metz 0-1 HT 0-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
01.05.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 2-2 HT 0-1 Metz Metz FR1
01.12.2021 Metz Metz 1-3 HT 0-2 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
03.02.2021 Metz Metz 1-1 HT 0-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
16.12.2020 Montpellier Montpellier 0-2 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1

Metz 0-4 Montpellier — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Metz
0-4
AWAY Montpellier
1.17 xG 2.63
68% Ball Possession 32%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
547 Passes 220
90% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Metz vs Montpellier
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montpellier cruised past Metz 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 25% / 35% — and on the day Montpellier made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Metz had 68% of the ball to Montpellier's 32%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.17 to 2.63.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Montpellier led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Metz and 1.67 for Montpellier.

What was the final score of Metz vs Montpellier?

Metz 0-4 Montpellier in the France - Cup on 11/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Metz vs Montpellier?

Before kick-off our model rated a Metz win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Metz 40%, draw 25%, Montpellier 35%. The final score 0-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Metz) ✗ Under 2.5
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