Lille 1-2 Lyon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 11 Jan 2026

Lille
1-2 HT 1-2
Lyon
📅11/01/2026 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Cup – 2025/2026

Lille vs Lyon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.46
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.34
6+ Goals
9%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 29% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.37
1/2
8%
29.5
1/X
8%
12.9
X/1
10%
5.42
X/2
15%
6.31
X/X
14%
4.85
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
12%
4.26
2/X
7%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
41%
-4.4pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.7pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+1.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.0pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lille v Lyon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lille EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Lyon EU Bookmakers 37%
+38% / +38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.03/0.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.51
-26% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -13%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
323 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
– Crosses 11.6
– Yellow Cards 2.0

Lille vs Lyon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lille
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Lyon
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.33 xG 1.62
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
407 Passes 406
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.09.2025 Lille Lille 0-1 HT 0-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
05.04.2025 Lyon Lyon 2-1 HT 1-1 Lille Lille FR1
01.11.2024 Lille Lille 1-1 HT 1-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
06.05.2024 Lille Lille 3-4 HT 2-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
07.02.2024 Lyon Lyon 2-1 HT 1-0 Lille Lille FRK
26.11.2023 Lyon Lyon 0-2 HT 0-2 Lille Lille FR1

Lille 1-2 Lyon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lille
1-2
AWAY Lyon
0.53 xG 1.97
60% Ball Possession 40%
7 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 2
531 Passes 334
89% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 10
17 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lille vs Lyon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon squeezed past Lille 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match split (36% / 29% / 35%) promised a tight game; Lyon found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Lille had 60% of the ball to Lyon's 40%, shots finished 7-11, expected goals 0.53 to 1.97 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lyon's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lille and 1.67 for Lyon.

What was the final score of Lille vs Lyon?

Lille 1-2 Lyon in the France - Cup on 11/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lille vs Lyon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Lille 36%, draw 29%, Lyon 35%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lille), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lille) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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