Chaves 2-3 Maritimo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 11 Jan 2026

📅11/01/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
36%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.61
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
4.15
6+ Goals
9%
20.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
35%
+1.7pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.5pp
36%
Away Win
36%
+0.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.3pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chaves EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Maritimo EU Bookmakers 39%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +20%
1.52/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.92/1.20
-17% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +19%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
278 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.8 Crosses 16.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chaves
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Maritimo
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.24 xG 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
287 Passes 304
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 3
02.02.2025 Chaves Chaves 1-1 HT 0-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR2
25.08.2024 Maritimo Maritimo 1-1 HT 0-0 Chaves Chaves POR2
05.02.2023 Chaves Chaves 2-1 HT 2-1 Maritimo Maritimo POR
15.08.2022 Maritimo Maritimo 1-2 HT 1-0 Chaves Chaves POR
02.02.2019 Chaves Chaves 1-0 HT 0-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR
24.08.2018 Maritimo Maritimo 2-1 HT 0-1 Chaves Chaves POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chaves
2-3
AWAY Maritimo
0.74 xG 1.20
33% Ball Possession 67%
5 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 6
102 Passes 274
58% Pass Accuracy 81%
8 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chaves vs Maritimo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maritimo nicked a narrow win over Chaves 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 36% — and on the day Maritimo made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Chaves had 33% of the ball to Maritimo's 67%, shots finished 5-14, expected goals 0.74 to 1.20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chaves had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Chaves and 1.00 for Maritimo.

What was the final score of Chaves vs Maritimo?

Chaves 2-3 Maritimo in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 11/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chaves vs Maritimo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chaves win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Chaves 37%, draw 27%, Maritimo 36%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Chaves), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chaves) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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