Avellino 0-1 ACR Messina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 11 Feb 2024

Avellino
0-1 HT 0-1
ACR Messina
📅11/02/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Italy - Serie C – 2023/2024

Avellino vs ACR Messina Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.45
Draw
30%
3.94
Away
19%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.71
Over 2.5
37%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.29
No
57%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
36%
2.75
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals
17%
4.15
6+ Goals
10%
20.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.75 — our 36% vs market 30.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
21%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
65%
-13.8pp
30%
Draw
22%
+7.6pp
19%
Away Win
13%
+6.2pp
63%
Under 2.5
55%
+8.0pp
37%
Over 2.5
45%
-8.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
40%
+3.2pp
57%
BTTS No
60%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Avellino v ACR Messina — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avellino EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY ACR Messina EU Bookmakers 16%
-9% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%
1.22/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.63
-30% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
330 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6

Avellino vs ACR Messina Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avellino
2W-1D-3L
AWAY ACR Messina
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 5
The Meetings
01.10.2023 ACR Messina ACR Messina 1-0 HT 1-0 Avellino Avellino İTC
22.01.2023 ACR Messina ACR Messina 2-0 HT 1-0 Avellino Avellino İTC
18.09.2022 Avellino Avellino 2-1 HT 1-1 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
20.03.2022 Avellino Avellino 1-1 HT 1-0 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
14.11.2021 ACR Messina ACR Messina 0-1 HT 0-1 Avellino Avellino İTC
19.04.2008 Avellino Avellino 1-2 HT 0-1 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTB

Avellino 0-1 ACR Messina — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avellino
0-1
AWAY ACR Messina
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Avellino vs ACR Messina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ACR Messina nicked a narrow win over Avellino 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Avellino at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Avellino had 61% of the ball to ACR Messina's 39%, shots finished 15-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, ACR Messina led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Avellino and 1.17 for ACR Messina.

What was the final score of Avellino vs ACR Messina?

Avellino 0-1 ACR Messina in the Italy - Serie C on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avellino vs ACR Messina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avellino win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Avellino 51%, draw 30%, ACR Messina 19%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Avellino) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Avellino) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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