SSC Giugliano 2-1 Virtus Francavilla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.95
No
57%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.53
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
4.54
6+ Goals
8%
24.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.53 — our 36% vs market 32.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
43%
+1.0pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.0pp
28%
Away Win
28%
-0.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+0.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-0.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.4pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SSC Giugliano EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Virtus Francavilla EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -32%
1.47/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.30
+10% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / -12%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
317 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SSC Giugliano
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Virtus Francavilla
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
01.10.2023 Virtus Francavilla Virtus Francavilla 1-1 HT 1-0 SSC Giugliano SSC Giugliano İTC
05.02.2023 Virtus Francavilla Virtus Francavilla 4-1 HT 2-0 SSC Giugliano SSC Giugliano İTC
08.10.2022 SSC Giugliano SSC Giugliano 2-0 HT 2-0 Virtus Francavilla Virtus Francavilla İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME SSC Giugliano
2-1
AWAY Virtus Francavilla
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH SSC Giugliano vs Virtus Francavilla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SSC Giugliano edged past Virtus Francavilla 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had SSC Giugliano as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, SSC Giugliano had 49% of the ball to Virtus Francavilla's 51%, shots finished 12-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for SSC Giugliano and 1.67 for Virtus Francavilla.

What was the final score of SSC Giugliano vs Virtus Francavilla?

SSC Giugliano 2-1 Virtus Francavilla in the Italy - Serie C on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SSC Giugliano vs Virtus Francavilla?

Before kick-off our model rated a SSC Giugliano win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split SSC Giugliano 44%, draw 28%, Virtus Francavilla 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (SSC Giugliano) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (SSC Giugliano) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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