Defensores De Belgrano 1-0 Nueva Chicago — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
34%
3.04
Away
21%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.45
Over 2.5
35%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.27
No
58%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
23%
X/2
9%
X/X
17%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
+0.3pp
34%
Draw
30%
+4.3pp
21%
Away Win
26%
-4.6pp
65%
Under 2.5
65%
-0.2pp
35%
Over 2.5
35%
+0.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
40%
+1.8pp
58%
BTTS No
60%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Defensores De Belgrano EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Nueva Chicago EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +2%
0.98/0.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.18
-26% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
266 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Defensores De Belgrano
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Nueva Chicago
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 2
06.10.2023 Nueva Chicago Nueva Chicago 2-1 HT 1-1 Defensores De Belgrano Defensores De Belgrano ARJPBN
31.05.2023 Defensores De Belgrano Defensores De Belgrano 0-0 HT 0-0 Nueva Chicago Nueva Chicago ARJPBN
28.03.2022 Defensores De Belgrano Defensores De Belgrano 1-1 HT 1-0 Nueva Chicago Nueva Chicago ARJPBN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Defensores De Belgrano
1-0
AWAY Nueva Chicago
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 12
6 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Defensores De Belgrano vs Nueva Chicago
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Defensores De Belgrano squeezed past Nueva Chicago 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Defensores De Belgrano as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Defensores De Belgrano had 47% of the ball to Nueva Chicago's 53%, shots finished 7-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Nueva Chicago led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Defensores De Belgrano and 1.00 for Nueva Chicago.

What was the final score of Defensores De Belgrano vs Nueva Chicago?

Defensores De Belgrano 1-0 Nueva Chicago in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Defensores De Belgrano vs Nueva Chicago?

Before kick-off our model rated a Defensores De Belgrano win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Defensores De Belgrano 45%, draw 34%, Nueva Chicago 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Defensores De Belgrano), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Defensores De Belgrano) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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